On Estimating
the Potential
Danger of Space Objects
Breakups for Space Flights
ABSTRACT
I
The increase in exploration intensity in the near-Earth
space (NES) and of its technogenic contamination, along with a conse-
quent growth of space objects (SO) breakups and collisions threatening
space flights turn the problem of danger estimations into an acute and
urgent issue, its validity being among the most important aspects. How-
ever, in practice, due to complexities in obtaining accurate estimates
caused by large initial data uncertainty, one often has to dramatically
simplify calculations neglecting multiple factors of great importance.
The article touches upon the problems of defining and applying the esti-
mates of potential danger of SO breakups, danger of collisions between
active spacecraft and SO, as well as describes the possible ways to
make estimations more correct.
Keywords:
near-Earth space, space objects,
spacecraft, space breakup, collision, danger
УДК 629.78 DOI: 10.30981/2587-7992-2018-94-1-54-63
Vitaly V. ADUSHKIN
Full Member of RAS, Dr. Sci. in Physics andMathematics, Professor
Institute of Geosphere Dynamics, RAS, Moscow, Russia,
Oleg Yu. AKSENOV
Dr. in Tech. Sci., Professor,
professor Scientific Research Centre «Kosmos», MoD, Moscow, Russia,
Stanislav S. VENIAMINOV
Dr. in Tech. Sci., Professor,
professor Scientific Research Centre «Kosmos», MoD, Moscow, Russia,
Stanislav I. KOZLOV
Dr. Sci. in Physics andMathematics
Institute of Geosphere Dynamics, RAS, Moscow, Russia,
54
ВОЗДУШНО-КОСМИЧЕСКАЯ ОБОРОНА
I
AEROSPACE DEFENSE
